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Talk:Snow Crystal

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Chance of getting snow crystal618:04, 11 January 2019

Chance of getting snow crystal

Edited by author.
Last edit: 07:58, 8 February 2014

It takes approximately 10% to get the snow crystal. From a very small sample size of 22 runs, I managed to get 2 snow crystals.

1st Snow Crystal - 6th Run.
2nd Snow Crystal - 22nd Run.

LawLies (talk)21:55, 7 February 2014

I would think there needs to be a bit larger sample size to see more results. That's just me though. I would say it's the same rate as a dungeon pass drops from an end chest.

レキシス・ミカヤ (talk)03:56, 8 February 2014

I agree. I will be conducting more runs some time in the future. Possibly 50 or 100 runs total.

LawLies (talk)07:57, 8 February 2014
 

148 runs. 26 yielded crystals. 17.567567567...%

Done over the course of a week, doing somewhere between 10~25 runs a day because I needed Snow Crystals for Transformation Mastery. Not to mention low collection rate is low e-e

レキシス・ミカヤ (talk)05:04, 22 February 2014
 

I once ran Par Ruins...first run I got a snow crystal. I didn't even know what it was or what I was suppose to do with it.

Nise Panda (talk)07:44, 8 February 2014
 
Edited by author.
Last edit: 18:04, 11 January 2019

I'm compiling the data we have based on what we have so far:

  • LawLies: 22 runs, 2 successes.
  • LexisMikaya: 148 runs, 26 successes.
  • Me: 90 runs, 4 successes.
  • Total: 250 runs, 32 successes.
  • Using a binomial confidence interval calculator, the 95 % confidence interval for drop probability is between 8.92 % - 17.59 %.

Keep in mind that there may be a bit of error, like the fact that Tuesdays increase dungeon drop rates, but this is still a pretty good estimate of the probability.

Hematin (talk)18:13, 18 May 2018

I'd say 10%.

Also Tuesdays don't change drops for chests. That daily effect increases the chance that monsters in the dungeon will drop an item when killed (like how the other daily effect for "animals and nature" increases drop chances for things outside of dungeons).

Rydian (talk)19:18, 18 May 2018