Chance of getting snow crystal

I'm compiling the data we have based on what we have so far:

• LawLies: 22 runs, 2 successes.
• LexisMikaya: 148 runs, 26 successes.
• Me: 90 runs, 4 successes.
• Total: 250 runs, 32 successes.
• Using a binomial confidence interval calculator, the 95 % confidence interval for drop probability is between 8.92 % - 17.59 %.

Keep in mind that there may be a bit of error, like the fact that Tuesdays increase dungeon drop rates, but this is still a pretty good estimate of the probability.

I'd say 10%.

Also Tuesdays don't change drops for chests. That daily effect increases the chance that monsters in the dungeon will drop an item when killed (like how the other daily effect for "animals and nature" increases drop chances for things outside of dungeons).