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Adding some Success Rates
If there is a formula that has all this information, I would be grateful if you could provide a link. So far to my understanding I am providing an 18% bonus from my Dex, due to having more than 180 Dex, and another 15% due to Production Mastery. So the unless there are other factors that I am not aware of, it would mean that at Rank E handicraft the doll should be 35% base. Am I mistaken?
Unfortunately, I'm not confident of the formula myself. Otherwise, I'd have told you the formula in the first comment!
I know that there's also a bonus for Monday, though.
Shoot your right, I forgot about the bonuses on days. I think the easiest way for one to figure the formula would to be to find one item that already has the base calculated and see where one currently stands with all bonuses that they can calculate. Seeing how I have +33%, I would need to make sure it wasn't a Monday or Event and figure out where I stand with my result (e.g the 65% with the puppet) and what the wiki has written. It would mean that I would have to find something that someone already has completed. (written before started my search.) If I am lucky someone may have the formula written somewhere already. Personally I think it would be awesome if there was a page just called "Formulas" With all the formulas in one place.